Posted in earthquakes, earthquakes are increasing, end time, God, science

The month that shook the world: Incredible time-lapse reveals planet as it was rocked by record-breaking earthquakes in April

UPDATE:  Rare Earthquake Warning Issued for OklahomaWe’ve never seen this before
Mile for mile, there are almost as many earthquakes rattling Oklahoma as California this year. This major increase in seismic shaking led to a rare earthquake warning today (May 5) from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Geological Survey.  In a joint statement, the agencies said the risk of a damaging earthquake — one larger than magnitude 5.0 — has significantly increased in central Oklahoma.”

——————————————–

An article appearing earlier this week at NBC posed the following question:

Does it seem as if there have been more earthquakes in recent weeks? Some scientists thought so. … Ross Stein, a senior U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist who studies how quakes interact, got so excited that on April 12 he fired off an email to colleagues that started with this: “Guys, seems like a lot of big quakes have been popping off around the globe over the past week. … Experts for years have known that the seismic waves from one quake can trigger a quake somewhere else — a process known as “dynamic triggering.” … Lay’s own research has found that over the last decade the number of major quakes, those measuring 8.0 or bigger, is nearly triple the rate for the 1900s, but whether that’s just a random cluster or a sign of dynamic triggering is unclear.”

‘Dynamic triggering’ is a scenario in which the scientists who study earthquakes say that one big earthquake triggers other, smaller ones. A shaking the tree effect, where one big quake shakes out not one apple from the tree but a bunch, all over.

So even though the data says that the number of major quakes has tripled, they’re not sure if that means there are more quakes. In fact, this scientist in the discussion concluded that it’s an illusion.

“Stein, like Lay, also counted quakes but looked instead at moderate and large quakes (4.5 magnitude or greater) in the 10 days before and after the April 1 quake that struck Iquique, Chile. In his email to peers, Stein concluded: “I do not see a global increase in activity post-Iquique, at least for moderate and larger quakes — the ones that matter for hazards.”[It] seemed like a lot of big quakes” after Iquique, he later told NBC News, “but it’s largely an illusion.””

Um…Okayyy. If there are more earthquakes, there are more earthquakes. In my opinion they should study why this is happening, not get busy creating more theories as to why the data doesn’t really mean there are more earthquakes.

Still, the scientist found something else that perplexed them,

“Stein, for example, told peers in his email that he had found something “very unusual” about the Iquique [Chile 8.2] quake: The area near the epicenter saw an unusually high number of “foreshocks” to the mainshock on April 1. “Maybe only 5 percent of quakes have what, in retrospect, we would call foreshocks,” he says. It turns out that the Iquique foreshocks covered an area almost as large as the area of the Iquique aftershocks. That, Stein adds, is “extremely rare and worthy of study.”

An interesting article and video came out this week also, on the topic of whether there are more quakes, This time, the data is from the Tsunami Warning Center.

The month that shook the world: Incredible time-lapse reveals planet as it was rocked by record-breaking earthquakes in April

  • Earth shown as calm until April 1 when huge earthquake rocks Chile
  • Another huge earthquake shakes Solomon Islands in the South Pacific
  • The activity doesn’t let up all month with larger-than-normal quakes all in Nicaragua, Mexico, Canada, and even an unusual one in the South Atlantic
  • According to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, which issues alerts for tsunamis, there were 13 major earthquakes in April

The 6.0-magnitude earthquake that jolted parts of Indonesia today served as a reminder of just how active the seemingly-solid ground beneath us can be. And these reminders have become increasingly frequent. On average, the world only sees one or two earthquakes per month that are 6.5-magnitude or higher. But April produced a higher-than-normal number of the major seismic events, as revealed in this incredible time-lapse video.

According to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), which issues alerts for tsunamis, there were 13 major earthquakes in April. Five were higher than 7.8, which prompted tsunami warnings. Moderate-to-large earthquakes are less common, but last month was ‘easily a record for this institution,’ according to the PTWC. The time-lapse takes you on a journey of all recorded large and medium-sized earthquakes that took place from January through to April of this year.

The video is worth watching in its entirety. The first 2 minutes show the rather regular popping of small to medium earthquakes all over the world, and mostly in the same places. You get lulled. Then when the large 8.2 in Chile happens, the screen goes pop-pop-pop and it reminded me of popcorn, when the bag in the microwave really gets going and things are popping all over the place.

The USGS people say that more earthquakes happening [despite the data showing otherwise] is just an illusion, while the Tsunami Warning Center people say that April broke a record.

I respect the work of scientists and I am a happy beneficiary of their work, but the end of the end time means that at some point, God’s work in His creation will far outstrip what science can deal with, or what scientific but unsaved minds are prepared to deal with. At the height of the Tribulation men will see what is happening, be unable to comprehend, and fear will overtake them and they will die on the spot. (Luke 21:26).

How will the scientists explain 100 lb hail? (Revelation 16:1). No wind anywhere on earth or sea? (Revelation 7:1). No rain for three years? (Revelation 11:6). A third and only a third of the earth’s grass and trees burned? (Revelation 8:1). Men who are scorched and combust with heat from the sun’s rays just by going outside? (Revelation 16:10). People who try to die, but can’t? (Revelation 9:6)

We are headed toward the time of intersection. Man believes he has made gains in understanding our world and the universe and how it works. And he has. But mans falsely believes that–

–he will continue to make gains in understanding
–once understanding, he can control what happens

Mankind will discover that he does not understand as much as he believes he does and that though he is always learning he is never able to come to knowledge of the truth. (2 Timothy 3:7) The truth is not in many of them. That truth is that God created the universe and He is in control of every dustmote and every atom. Albert Einstein came close when he said,

“Everything is determined, the beginning as well as the end, by forces over which we have no control. It is determined for the insect, as well as for the star. Human beings, vegetables, or cosmic dust, we all dance to a mysterious tune, intoned in the distance by an invisible piper.”

Not “an” invisible piper, but God, YHWH, and He is not invisible,

He is the image of the invisible God, the firstborn of all creation. 16For by Him all things were created, both in the heavens and on earth, visible and invisible, whether thrones or dominions or rulers or authorities– all things have been created through Him and for Him.” (Colossians 1:15-16).

For those people who repent of their sins and claim Him as supreme Lord of all, they will see Him, and they will finally know as they are known. For the rest, what lies ahead is a continual restlessness of mind and soul, seeking the answer to life’s mysteries, and never able to discover the glory that exists right here, in Jesus, in knowing Him, and in the security of our eternal future.

And just for fun, 90s throwback

Posted in earthquake data, earthquakes are increasing, prophecy, signs

By The Numbers 2013: how many earthquakes this year?

As the New Year enters and the old year departs, it is time for me to produce my annual By The Numbers, year in review. It has no particular meaning, other than it demonstrates that either I have too much time on my hands, or I enjoy research and manipulation of data as a hobby. Both, I think!

A few years ago I became interested in the schism between what I saw were definite increased numbers of global earthquakes and the US Geological Survey’s equally definite insistence that quakes were not increasing. I decided to look into the data, using their own numbers, benchmarks, and search engines. Well guess what? Earthquakes were increasing.

Jesus said that His coming would be preceded by signs. Some of these signs are emotional, such as men becoming greedy, loveless, brutal, etc, as listed in 2 Timothy 3:1-5. Some of the prophesied signs are religious, such as apostasy rising among the professing church, false doctrine being accepted, and a loss of discernment, as many verses in 1 John, 1 Thessalonians, and other passages tell us. Some of the signs would be geophysical or celestial. There will be earthquakes in diverse places, the seas will be roaring, there will be signs in the skies and so on.

Most of those signs mentioned in the passages, notably Matthew 24, Luke 21, and Revelation 6, are going to occur in the Tribulation period. However, the signs Jesus enumerated and are listed elsewhere in the Old and New Testaments are for the entire church age and will continue into the Tribulation. The church age is between the moment Jesus ascended (Acts 1:11) and when He calls for His bride, ending the Age of Grace. (1 Corinthians 15:51-52). The Tribulation period will begin the moment after the rapture and finish when Jesus returns to the Mount of Olives. (Zechariah 14:4). His signs of return are spread throughout the church age and then are clustered heavily well into the Tribulation.

As Jesus likened the signs to birth pangs, and birth pangs increase as the event nears, so will the signs increase. I could look at numbers of baptisms to determine if apostasy is rising, or number of crimes to see if lovelessness is increasing, but there is a large element of subjectivity to them. Instead I just concentrate on the geophysical signs presented in hard data because there is a lesser amount of subjectivity included in the results. It is in that context that I put together an annual look at the data than can be quantified.

One final caveat: we don’t need signs to tell us Jesus is coming, because He said He is coming and that is all we need to know. I do this out of curiosity and interest, not because we need validation from scientific sources for the certainty of His appearing.

Meanwhile we can learn from the lessons every disaster gives us. John MacArthur’s church is in California. In January 1994 a tremendous earthquake occurred. It is known as the Northridge quake. The earthquake had a “strong” moment magnitude (Mw) of 6.7, but the ground acceleration was one of the highest ever instrumentally recorded in an urban area in North America.

The epicenter was practically underneath Grace Community Church. Five days later, Dr MacArthur delivered a sermon titled “Lessons from the Earthquake.” It is a tremendously relevant and insightful sermon, and I urge you to read to or listen to it. Here are the main bullet points he shared. In every calamity, there are many lessons for the Christian, and many other, separate lessons for the non-Christian. He preached 7 lessons for each.

Lessons for Christians
God is sovereign,
What is eternal can’t be destroyed,
Disaster produces dependence on God,
Adversity enriches fellowship,
Suffering makes us long for the perfect kingdom,
Calamity strengthens us to serve others,
What is the greatest calamity can bring God the most glory.

Lessons for not Christians
For those unprepared to die, lesson number one, life is fragile,
There are limits to self-protection,
Death is inevitable,
We live in a cursed world,
Temporal disasters are only previews of coming attractions,
God uses calamity to call people to repentance,
Time is limited to heed the warning.

Time is limited. All of history is dwindling down to the moment when Jesus will return, and judge the living and the dead for all eternity. THAT is the main lesson I share with you. Repent, while there is still time. Let these statistics and notes be a lesson to you and to us all through the year: life is fragile, and to enter death unprepared is an eternal tragedy.

WEATHER

“The 2013 extreme weather events included several all-time temperature records in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The February extent of snow cover in Eurasia and North America was above average, while the extent of Arctic ice in the same month was 4,5% below the 1981–2010 average.” (source)

There were lots of record high temperatures, and record lows. It snowed in Cairo Egypt, and in many other places in the usually arid and snowless Middle East. Typhoon Haiyan was the largest storm on record. “With sustained wind speeds of more than 310 kilometres per hour, Haiyan was the most powerful tropical cyclone to make landfall in recorded history. … Unusually warm subsurface Pacific waters appear to have endowed Haiyan with the energy that made it the strongest typhoon ever known to make landfall.” (source)

TORNADOES

Though the top deadliest tornadoes occurred in the 1800s and the early part of the 1900s, tornadoes in the new millennium have some notable aspects.

Notable events for the 2013 tornado year were-
–A general under-performance of tornado activity continued for the second straight year across the United States during 2013,
–The largest tornado outbreaks occurred in times typically not noted as the main tornado season,
–Two confirmed violent tornadoes that passed through New Minden and Washington, IL. are “the only violent tornadoes on record in Illinois during the month”. (Tornadoes.com)
–On May 20, 2013an EF5 tornado struck Moore, Oklahoma – the first EF5 tornado to occur in nearly two years. (Wikipedia)

Notable events for the tornado year 2011 were:
–553 people in the United States died, compared to 564 US deaths in the prior ten years combined. (Wikipedia)
–The April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak is the most prolific tornado outbreak in US history. It produced approximately 358 tornadoes, with 209 of those in a single 24-hour period on April 27. (Wikipedia)
–The May 22, 2011 Joplin MO tornado is the 7th deadliest US tornado on record, with 162 deaths

General note:
–Four of the top ten costliest tornadoes occurred in the last two years. Costliest tornadoes number 1 and 2 were the April-May 2011 Joplin MO and Tuscaloosa Alabama tornadoes, and 3rd, the May 2013 Moore OK, and 4th, Hackleburg, Alabama in April 2011.

2004, 2008, and 2011 were the highest number of tornado years. Click to enlarge

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

LIGHTNING

I know the men at the Weather Service have been working for many years to get lightning information out to people. I think – hope- this graph shows their efforts are working.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Dave Barry wrote a laugh out loud, hilarious review of the year. I mean Laugh. Out. Loud. In it, Barry said, “the economy’s been recovering for years now without actually getting any better.” He’s right. But at least the bank bailout has been successful. Fewer banks are failing. But there are still more failing in this decade than at the beginning of the millennium.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

VOLCANOES

The go-to database for searching eruptions is Smithsonian Volcano Project. However, they shut their database down recently for searching with filters. So I can’t get good volcano information. Here is an article from The Atlantic, though the first sentences drive me crazy:

2013: The Year in Volcanic Activity
This been a particularly eventful year for the world’s volcanoes. Out of an estimated 1,500 active volcanoes, 50 or so erupt every year, spewing steam, ash, toxic gases, and lava.”

OK…so if this was a ‘particularly eventful year’ and 50 volcanoes erupt every year, how does this year compare?? Did 60 volcanoes erupt? 70? 1000? How many eruptions over 50 qualifies as a ‘particularly eventful year?’ But the article does have lots of beautifully photographed volcano eruptions.

This was interesting, from Dec 29: El Salvador’s Chaparrastique volcano erupts for first time in 37 years , and there was this

Seven Volcanoes In Six Different Countries All Start Erupting Within Hours Of Each OtherA new island has appeared in the Pacific. A submarine eruption just off Nishino-Shima Island Japan has erupted for the first time in 40 years. The Japanese Navy noticed the explosions as boiling lava met sea water giving rise to plumes of steam and ash.

The Extinction Protocol person published a volcano report which got a lot of attention, and I looked into it but can’t see where he got his data from. Caveat Emptor:

2013 marks record year for the number of volcanoes erupting across the planet (as of Dec 5, 2013)
This year will go down on record, as seeing the most volcanic eruptions recorded in modern history. The previous number was set in 2010, at 82 volcanic eruptions for the year. The number of volcanoes erupting across the planet has been steadily rising from a meager number of just 55 recorded in 1990.”

He also said that all the planet’s supervolcanoes are in a phase of simultaneous inflation, but…I dunno. Caveat Caveat Emptor.

EARTHQUAKES

Here is the updated chart of the global number of earthquakes in various magnitudes. USGS benchmarks are seen in the left-most column. Numbers in red indicate meeting or exceeding those benchmarks. Click to enlarge.

This science researcher named “R. Webb” in the UK looked into long, long-term trends, over centuries. He reports of earthquake trends,
Apart from the “long-term” trends… which show an ongoing persistent increase, it is perhaps more stark to record that earthquakes across the planet show a marked increase in activity since 1997. There are more major earthquakes occurring now, and this on an ever more frequent basis. 

Trends since 1986

For example, between 1986 and 1996 (incl), a period of 11 years, there were “just” 15 earthquakes listed by USGS of magnitude 7.0 or greater. This is not markedly different (albeit a slight decrease) from previous (similar periods) of 20th century, where an average of about 18 might be expected.

But between 1997 and 2007 (incl), a period of only 11 years, there were 99 earthquakes with magnitude 7.0 or greater : This is more than a six-fold increase on the previous similar period – and is a stark increase on any earlier decades in 20th century too.

His estimation of there being 190 quakes greater than 7.0 magnitude during the 38 year period between 1977 and 2014 was grossly underestimated. There were 583! (as of Dec 31, 2013)

The trends in nature here, particularly from 1997 support the wider realisation of prophesy about the “End Times”, namely that an increase in earthquake activity is a per-requisite for the “second coming of Jesus Christ” foretold in the bible. It does not indicate how close we are to this event, but suggests it is not too far away. …Although Jesus is clear that no one will know the day or the hour, and his return will indeed happen “when you do not expect”, he does give us broad pointers, one of these being natural events – like earthquakes. (source)

Broad pointer…I agree. And as John MacArthur advises, there are lessons to be learned in each and every calamity. These aren’t just numbers on a page but lives affected, deaths injuries, lives changes. As always, be in prayer for the people affected by disasters, and be in prayer that the Lord should come soon. May 2014 be the year of the rapture.

Henceforth there is laid up for me the crown of righteousness, which the Lord, the righteous judge, will award to me on that Day, and not only to me but also to all who have loved his appearing.  
2 Timothy 4:8

 

Posted in earthquakes are increasing, end time, prophecy

Are there more earthquakes?

I updated this data through November 6, 2011 in a new chart. Please visit this blog entry to see the new data.

This question comes up a lot. We know that in the end times Jesus said that “there will be earthquakes in diverse places.” He also said that there would be upheavals in the cosmos and in the weather. We know that there will be huge quakes in the Tribulation, mega-quakes that topple every wall, every mountain, and submerge the islands (Ez 38:20; Rev 6:12; Rev 16:20). Earthquakes are important to wonder about because it is one of the major ways God speaks to us and it is also a major way He judges. Earthquakes are important prophetically, spiritually, and personally, too. There is nothing more unsettling than the very earth beneath our feet giving way. With this in mind, many people believe that there has been an increase in seismic activity in advance of these prophesied events. So? Has there been?

I’ve presented graphs several times that show a history of an upward trend. The most recent graph was updated September 26, 2011.

The source is US geological Survey and the trends are a statistically solid ten-year outlook. But yet people still wonder, are earthquakes on the rise? USGS keeps saying no, it only SEEMS like there is because we have placed a higher number of seismic instruments around the world. So here are some other people who did the data and found, guess what? The incidents of earthquakes are on the rise.

The Deccan Chronicle is the largest circulated English daily in south India and the third largest English daily newspaper in India overall. Their article from yesterday states that “Killer earthquakes are on the rise.”
The last decade has seen an intensification in earthquake activities. The 2004 Sumatra quake in Indonesia, which registered 9.3 on the Richter scale, has triggered stress in many areas. The Sikkim earthquake could be a manifestation of this stress. Earthquakes, some scientists believe, are on the rise. The earthquake in Fukushima in Japan had a magnitude of 8.9 and was the largest in the recorded history of Japan. The February 2010 Chile earthquake registered a similar magnitude as the Japan quake while the January 2010 quake in Haiti had a magnitude of 7.0 on the Richter scale.” The author continues int he article, making the plea that with evidence showing killer quakes are on the rise and with the example of Japan’s thorough training, preparation and building codes, India could do much better in those areas given the data and what is to come.

Even more, this CBN article from September 21:
“In the Bible, Jesus talks about “earthquakes in various places” as signs of the end times. As several powerful quakes rocked various places around the world last year and so far this year, many are finding those words even more compelling. Even the heartland of America has seen an increase in the number of quakes. The year 2010 began with a deadly earthquake in Haiti. But before the year ended, more than 20 earthquakes struck worldwide, reaching a magnitude of 7.0 or higher — the largest number of major earthquakes in 40 years. That trend is continuing in places like Japan, Guatemala, the India-Nepal border, and New Zealand.”

“Oklahoma has definitely seen a spike in quake activity. More than 1,000 were recorded in 2010 alone, most too small to be felt. Before that, the largest number of quakes recorded in a year — felt and not felt — was 167. Before 2009, Oklahomans experienced on average only about three earthquakes strong enough to be felt each year. In 2009, that number jumped to 43. To the east, Arkansas is experiencing a number of earthquakes as well. More than 800 have hit the north central part of the state since September. The largest one to shake Arkansas in 35 years struck in February with a magnitude 4.7.”

Much more at link.

So what does this mean? It means that no matter what, unrepentant sinners will not inherit eternal life. They go to hell. Death can come at any time, by heart attack, car crash, or earthquake. It means that natural disasters n advance of the Tribulation are ramping up just like birth pangs, as Jesus said would happen. It means time is short, and He is coming soon to catch away His church and to judge the world. It means He is merciful, shaking us so that we will ponder these things and repent. Here are “Four Reasons why God is Shaking America & The World: Text of “Wake Up Call” sermon. Here is the conclusion to that sermon by Joel Rosenberg:

“Let’s be clear: the Bible tells us that these shakings are going to continue, and get worse, like birth pangs, increasing in frequency and intensity — contraction and release, contraction and release. Our Father is trying to wake us up before it is too late. Our Lord Jesus Christ is giving us time…..

  • to rekindle our first love with Him
  • to embrace Him
  • to eat of the Bread of Life
  • to drink of the living water
  • to follow Him no matter what the journey
  • to serve Him no matter how high the cost
  • to discover His mercies afresh every morning
  • to discover that when the world is being shaken, you don’t have to be – not in your heart, not in your soul – because your hope and trust is fully in Him.

“And, “Cast your burden upon the Lord and He will sustain you; He will never allow the righteous to be shaken.” (Psalm 55:22).

Where are you tonight? Are you ready to meet Jesus face to face?”

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttp://www.facebook.com/widgets/like.php?href=http://the-end-time.blogspot.com/2011/09/are-there-more-earthquakes.html

http://s7.addthis.com/js/250/addthis_widget.js#pubid=xa-4df8df7d18b59150

Posted in earthquakes, earthquakes are increasing, prophecy, tornadoes increasing

Are the number of earthquakes going up, or not?

I like charts. I like graphs. I like the presentation of large quantities of data in visual form. It’s just neat.

But there is a danger in charts, numbers and statistics. You’ve heard the phrase, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It was popularly attributed to Mark Twain. It’s a phrase “describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent’s point.” Says Wikipedia. Two people can use the same data to prove opposite points- if you are unscrupulous. And there are a lot of unscrupulous statisticians, governments, and officials these days.

I read about earthquakes and volcanoes and tornadoes and unemployment and I know from past experience having been a reporter, that it is always in the Officials’ best interest to hide, manipulate, and change data. Did you ever wonder why Educational Standardized tests were radically changed every few years? Because it is a general good statistics practice to keep the testing methods the same for at least three years so as to get a baseline. So quite often, the test is changed and in year four and you suddenly find you can’t compare apples to apples anymore and the data comparisons are tainted.

I also know of cases where the data being compared was deliberately manipulated. “They wouldn’t do that!” you gasp. I know. You’re shocked, shocked. But it happens all too frequently. As a matter of fact, data manipulation is usually the default these days. For example, a School Superintendent I know who worked far away and many years ago, was sharing the proposed budget for that year with the community. He had “helpfully” put the information in graphs, and comparing the graph of the last two years with this proposed year, the budget didn’t look like it was going up very much. But he had left out certain information and it turned out that the data being presented for the previous years was actually a combination of a decade while the data for that year as stand-alone. Or something like that. In any case, it was a pure manipulation, which as a reporter, I exposed.

John Williams is a statistician and an economist who got tired of the Government changing its presentations for Unemployment every few years. For example the unemployment numbers for last year suddenly didn’t include short-term discouraged unemployed anymore. Those millions of folks were just dropped off the counts. Of course this flattens the spike, and makes it appear that there are fewer unemployed than there are. In 1994, they dropped off long-term unemployed, as if they simply didn’t exist. Williams decided to calculate unemployment the same way they have always been calculated. His website states, “John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics” is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers…” It is known locally as Shadow Stats.

When the United States Geological survey answers the question in April 2010, “Are there more earthquakes” this way, you just have to scratch your head: “China’s tragic magnitude 6.9 earthquake on April 13 and the recent devastating earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Mexico, and elsewhere have many wondering if this earthquake activity is unusual. Scientists say 2010 is not showing signs of unusually high earthquake activity. …With six major earthquakes striking in the first four months of this year, 2010 is well within the normal range. Furthermore, from April 15, 2009, to April 14, 2010, there have been 18 major earthquakes, a number also well within the expected variation.” What USGS doesn’t say is that the yearly average of ‘major’ quakes (7.0 mag and above) according to their own data was already exceeded by that point. He was comparing apples to oranges by comparing annual averages to expected variations.

What I always do it go to the raw data. I compare apples to apples, meaning, I compare a decade’s worth of activity to a decade’s worth of activity. I am consistent in the way I count. I use official sources where possible. Where there is a baseline, or an average, I use that. And generally, the longer the trend, the more stable the data. Comparing 2009 and 2010 earthquake activity doesn’t tell you as much as if you compare ten years’ worth. That is why the USGS data is so valuable, it goes back 111 years.

I have personally read these excuses from officials in answering whether there are more quakes, or volcanic eruptions, or tornadoes:

“It only seems like there’s more tornadoes because there is a higher population in the Midwest than there used to be.”
“It only seems like there’s more earthquakes because there is an increase in instruments placed around the world.”
“It only seems like there are more volcanic eruptions because there are more people in the areas where volcanoes are.”

Naw, there’s more of everything. Here is data, by the numbers:

EARTHQUAKES (As of June 15, 2011)

Source United States Geological Survey. Click on table to enlarge. One thing to let you know: for EQ’s in the 6.0-6.9 range for 2011, I put it in red even though it hasn’t exceeded the yearly average yet, because I wanted to highlight that we are only halfway through this year but quakes in that magnitude range already exceed the number of quakes that size that occurred in ALL of 2001. Also that the quakes for that particular magnitude are running way above normal pace compared to the yearly averages.

TORNADOES (June 1, 2011)
I was pleased to see that someone at Weather Channel experienced in meteorology and tornadoes in particular, decided to just do some data counting and did it with integrity. This is a ten-year look at tornado averages and the comparison to this year is amazing. The resulting article shows that the number of tornadoes is wayyyy up.
Source, Weather Channel: “Expert Says 2011 Tornadoes 106% Above Average”

VOLCANOES (Dec 31, 2010)
Source Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. As of Dec 31, 2010

Unemployment, from John Williams’ Shadow Government Stats (SGS)

John Williams’ explanation-

“The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the BLS broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.”

 Bank failures 2007-2010, source FDIC

 The same data of bank failures but in a line chart. Just a different visual presentation

I guess the lesson here is that statistics can be massively manipulated. That the government isn’t telling us the truth about unemployment the economy, and the number of natural disasters. Just like the biblical Bereans, who were commended for checking the scriptures daily to see if these things were true, be a civic Berean and check the data yourself. In some of these cases, I literally and personally counted each item. Others, such as USGS earthquakes you can search by year and a total result would be given. Be diligent, suspect the government at all times, and be relieved that you know you can ALWAYS trust the Lord!

PS: you can use any of the charts. I’d appreciate a link back. If you use Shadow Stats’ unemployment chart you have to link back to ShadowStats.






http://s7.addthis.com/js/250/addthis_widget.js#pubid=xa-4df8df7d18b59150

Posted in earthquakes are increasing, end time, prophecy

The number of earthquakes is on the rise

Ask a scientist at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) “are earthquakes on the rise?” and their answer is “As more and more seismographs are installed in the world, more earthquakes can be and have been located. However, the number of large earthquakes (magnitude 6.0 and greater) has stayed relatively constant.” And: “Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.”

This is not true. Data is data. It cannot at the same time be extra sensitive & giving more information, yet be fairly constant and the data really stays the same. Those two statements are at odds with each other. Below their explanation about the number of large quakes staying constant, they present a chart. Not included in the chart data (but is included above it) is the number of average earthquakes for that particular magnitude. For the last eleven years, including this partial year, there would be 44 data points for quakes in the 5, 6, 7, and 8 magnitude. Of those 44, 22 are running above the average. Half of the categories are higher than average, which means it is not “fairly constant.”

They continue

“A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day.”

If we accept their explanation about advanced sensitive seismological instruments in more places are helping them to locate more earthquakes each year, let’s cut off the data at 2005 and start from 2006 (meaning we look at three and a half years of data). I cannot believe that in the last three years the USGS has placed so many new seisomological pieces of equipment at every station so that the data would be gathered at such a dramatically increased pace. Looking at the last few years, we have 24 data points, and we are still running more than fifty percent above average.

*running ahead of average
red indicates categories exceeding annual average

You can search for yourself. The USGS allows data input by year, depth, magnitude, and intensity. I searched for year and magnitude. The USGS’s insistence that earthquakes are not increasing is not supported by the data. I agree, one year of higher than average earthquakes in a category or two would be an anomaly. However, almost every category running higher than average for several years in a row, is not an anomaly. It is a pattern.

Christians know that one of God’s signature languages is earthquakes. Throughout human history He has used them to demonstrate His power, His wrath, and His promises. A keyword search for “earthquake” in the bible results in many examples, here. One of them is:

“From the LORD of hosts you will be punished with thunder and earthquake and loud noise, With whirlwind and tempest and the flame of a consuming fire.” (Isaiah 29:6)

One of them will be: “And there were flashes of lightning and sounds and peals of thunder; and there was a great earthquake, such as there had not been since man came to be upon the earth, so great an earthquake was it, and so mighty.” (Rev 16:18)

We are promised that the signs of the end will contain earthquakes: “For nation will rise up against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be earthquakes in various places; there will also be famines. These things are merely the beginning of birth pangs.” (Mark 13:8)

Who are you going to believe? Man, who says everything is normal and earthquakes are not increasing? Or God, who said He will send earthquakes as a sign of the beginning of the birthpangs? I always believe God and I can see that earthquakes are increasing. This means Jesus will return soon, because we’re promised that as soon as you see these things begin to happen, look up, for your Redemption draws nigh. Are you ready?