According to the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System at NASA,(click alerts then click on arrival time), the solar gas belched out on Feb 15th toward the earth, in scientific terms known as an X-class flare, will arrive overnight on Feb 17th and remain buffeting the earth for a total of plus or minus 6 hours.
http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?clear=1
Event Issue Date: 2011-02-15 05:47:44.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-02-17 02:57:50.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 6 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.5 Re
Some early effects are already being felt in North Korea. “The Sun emitted a strong flare on Tuesday at around 10:50 a.m. Korea time disrupting some radio communications here in Korea. According to the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, a powerful solar flare from “Sunspot 1-1-5-8″ interfered with radio waves in shortwave receivers. The institute predicts a massive burst of solar wind and radiation to hit the Earth’s magnetic field some time between Wednesday and Thursday which could cause further damage to electrical systems and black out additional radio communications here. A solar flare is an explosion on the Sun that happens when energy stored in twisted magnetic fields is suddenly released. Since last year solar flares have been increasing in number with one of the biggest expected in 2013.”
And also in China: “A large solar flare accompanied by electromagnetic storms affected shortwave radio communications in southern China on Tuesday, according to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The CMA’s space weather monitoring center reported that it had spotted the X2.2-class solar flare at 9:56 a.m. Tuesday Beijing Time. Xue Bingsen, a researcher with the center, said the solar flare caused sudden ionospheric disturbances in the atmosphere above China and affected shortwave radio communications, according to a CMA statement. A solar flare is a violent explosion in the sun’s atmosphere caused by huge magnetic activity. The flares produce large amounts of radiation that can affect the Earth’s ionosphere and disrupt radio communications. The space weather monitoring center said there is a high probability that large solar flares will appear in the next three days.”
MSNBC says that “Ideally, the associated stream of particles could reach the Earth 37 hours after the flare’s eruption.
That would correspond Tuesday, Feb. 15, at about 1:30 a.m. EST. But this is only an approximation; the actual commencement of a possible magnetic storm could occur many hours earlier or later, so it would be best to check the sky periodically during the overnight hours to assess if any activity is actually taking place.
The prospective zone of visibility can include the northern Rockies, northern Plains, the Great Lakes, northern portions of Pennsylvania and New Jersey as well as all of New York State and New England. However, if the stream of electrified particles turns out to be less energetic, aurora visibility might be confined to places farther to the north, and nearer to the Canadian border. Conversely, if the particle stream turns out to be stronger than forecast, an aurora might sighted farther south into the central U.S.”
Happy viewing! Do take a look outside if you even have the slimmest chance of seeing a Northern Light. GO OUTSIDE and LOOK! 🙂 They are spectacularly spooky and beautiful.
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